What Have You Got on Draft? (414 views)

[eric]

I wanted to establish a baseline value for draft picks. There are many ways to do this with different strengths and weaknesses to each approach. First I added up the Win Shares and Minutes Played of every player drafted from the 3010 through 3015 drafts. Here's what I got:

pick mp ws ws/48
1 130434 311.5 0.115
2 123990 409.9 0.159
3 120729 362.2 0.144
4 82693 142.7 0.083
5 84956 176.5 0.100
6 71952 210.8 0.141
7 66027 113.7 0.083
8 93620 206.5 0.106
9 78143 169.8 0.104
10 87238 246.5 0.136
11 51254 161.3 0.151
12 55266 92.0 0.080
13 72357 100.7 0.067
14 50432 79.9 0.076
15 48838 89.9 0.088
16 59910 110.8 0.089
17 52727 115.5 0.105
18 40842 44.3 0.052
19 36926 64.2 0.083
20 43098 109.8 0.122
21 36626 58.3 0.076
22 31842 50.1 0.076
23 32811 55.3 0.081
24 30552 61.3 0.096
25 30268 8.9 0.014
26 41854 66.6 0.076
27 25048 1.8 0.004
28 32087 41.5 0.062
29 22664 6.3 0.013
30 33955 38.4 0.054
31 19156 0.7 0.002
32 21072 5.7 0.013
33 28490 37.1 0.062
34 14776 8.1 0.026
35 26530 55.1 0.100
36 10622 4.8 0.022
37 17602 28.8 0.079
38 27492 48.3 0.084
39 4232 -3.0 -0.034
40 10221 -8.5 -0.040
41 6795 -2.0 -0.014
42 11202 10.7 0.046
43 5621 4.6 0.039
44 4826 5.4 0.053
45 13867 11.1 0.038
46 38022 63.9 0.081
47 8121 -10.2 -0.060
48 187 0.0 0.002
49 7704 6.1 0.038
50 24825 95.3 0.184
51 290 0.4 0.062
52 2497 -1.0 -0.019
53 581 0.8 0.064
54 16352 29.2 0.086
55 2236 -0.1 -0.002
56 27046 102.0 0.181
57 11171 4.2 0.018
58 25408 69.6 0.131
In general, the lolwrongtmbsl GMs are good at draft talent evaluation. The best players are picked around the top, then medium grade players, then bad players... then at the end things go haywire.

range mp ws ws/48
1-11 991036 2511.4 0.122
12-24 592227 1032.0 0.084
25-38 351616 352.1 0.048
39-58 221204 378.4 0.082
As veteran GMs have probably already guessed, the reason for this is basically the 3013 draft, where Andrew Harrison went 46, Aaron Harrison went 50, and Jon Pierce went 58. These three players combine for 99% of the Win Shares of their draft slots and 72% of the minutes played: many players in those draft slots barely play at all, and in this sample we had a lot of second round picks not be made, further skewing the numbers. If we look at the 39-58 bloc as a whole, the other five drafts produce .051 WS/48 and the 3013 draft produces .129. This suggests that there isn't really a 39-58 bloc, but that the 25-58 range is a .05 type player by this analysis.

To provide a frame of reference, last year there were 232 players with 1000+ MP, which works out to 8 per team and is thus a rough indication of "rotation player". In that sample, a .05 WS/48 player was 20th percentile (solid bench), .084 was 38th (starter), and .122 was 67th (primary option).

.

The issue with this approach illustrated by the 3013 second round is that players who play more skew the averages, but playing more is itself a (rough) indication that a player is worthwhile. If a draft slot has produced a Derrick McKey, that should be part of the history. There are two ways we can look at it that way. A quick and crude way is to look simply at minutes played per draft slot divided by 51, the number of player-seasons on record for these drafts. When we do that, the tiers look like...

2452 for picks 1-3
1582 for picks 4-10
1095 for picks 11-17
708 for picks 18-26
457 for picks 27-38
217 for picks 39-58

...which lines up pretty well with the first analysis but indicates a strong subdivision of the first tier. Whereas the 11th pick produced .151 WS/48 which was better than the 1st or 3rd pick, each of the top 3 draft picks produced more than twice as many MP.

A more robust way of looking at this is to average each pick's WS/48 (and using 0 for players who did not play or were not drafted). This approach also has problems because it treats Coby Karl's 5 minutes of -.654 WS/48 as 1/6th of the total output, but it works out pretty well anyway:

pick ws/48
1 0.111
2 0.137
3 0.132
4 0.055
5 0.078
6 0.080
7 0.056
8 0.097
9 0.083
10 0.111
11 0.061
12 0.043
13 0.058
14 0.052
15 0.077
16 0.066
17 0.047
18 0.037
19 0.046
20 0.068
21 0.046
22 0.055
23 0.079
24 0.035
25 0.019
26 0.052
27 0.017
28 0.021
29 0.028
30 0.053
31 0.002
32 0.002
33 0.038
34 0.032
35 0.008
36 0.007
37 0.038
38 0.027
39 -0.014
40 -0.005
41 0.004
42 0.007
43 0.028
44 0.019
45 0.012
46 0.027
47 -0.012
48 -0.099
49 0.015
50 0.016
51 0.010
52 0.020
53 0.026
54 0.019
55 -0.009
56 0.046
57 0.011
58 -0.011
Which breaks down into ranges like so...

range ws/48
1-10 0.094
11-23 0.057
24-38 0.025
39-58 0.006
All three methods tell us pretty much the same thing, which is a good sign. 1-10 is where you can expect to get a good player (1-3 a star), 11-25 is a starter, 26-38 is a bench guy, 39-58 is a scrub. There is of course a chance that any pick can become the best player in the league, but it would be silly to therefore say that a #1 and a #58 pick have equal expected value, and that is what this analysis is meant to indicate.

.

Next I'm going to try and evaluate how well teams did over this six year sample by comparing their actual picks' performance with the expected value of each slot, but first I'm going to have to unify these metrics somehow.

[Lazy Pete]

Aug 20, 2015 9:22:33 GMT -6 eric said:

Next I'm going to try and evaluate how well teams did over this six year sample by comparing their actual picks' performance with the expected value of each slot, but first I'm going to have to unify these metrics somehow.

Would love to see this. I have a feeling I'm going to do well if it's 3010-3015 still, I had some really good drafts over that period

[Druce]

good times.

[20s Navidad]

Curious why you limited your sample data to 3010-3015 drafts

[eric]

Aug 20, 2015 10:27:35 GMT -6 20s Navidad said:

Curious why you limited your sample data to 3010-3015 drafts

Wanted to give players time to develop, get SC/RC loving, reduce the systematic error that bad teams generally get good picks and thus deflate the WS of their players for the first year or two.

[20s Navidad]

What about all the drafts before 3010 though?

[Lazy Pete]

I think the data is spotty from those years

[KwYawnza]

Yeah fuck you if you pick 47, that used to be the lifetime channel for me growing up.

[eric]

Aug 20, 2015 10:34:25 GMT -6 20s Navidad said:

What about all the drafts before 3010 though?

pete got it, the only years with box scores are 3006, 3007, and 3010-present.

[eric]

First off, some information was not filed correctly in the first post. Nothing really changes except that the first minutes played tier should be picks 1-4 instead of 1-3.

In the first post I had developed three ways of looking at draft pick production: minutes played, aggregate Win Shares per 48 minutes, and average Win Shares per 48 minutes. I decided that the best way to combine these was to average the two WS/48 approaches, multiply by minutes played, and voila! Win Shares per year. Compare that to each pick and we find out which players over- or under-performed their draft slot, total that up by team and we get...

no diff avg Team
10 11.70 1.17 76ers
8 -7.10 -0.89 Blazers
17 6.51 0.38 Bucks
9 12.52 1.39 Bullets
9 -2.91 -0.32 Bulls
14 -8.46 -0.60 Cavaliers
15 4.26 0.28 Celtics
4 4.68 1.17 Clippers
9 6.04 0.67 Grizzlies
5 -0.15 -0.03 Hawks
12 -0.03 0.00 Heat
12 1.18 0.10 Hornets
5 8.50 1.70 Jazz
20 15.16 0.76 Kings
10 -1.42 -0.14 Knicks
11 6.92 0.63 Lakers
5 1.60 0.32 Magic
4 12.43 3.11 Mavericks
19 2.42 0.13 Nets
15 -11.94 -0.80 Nuggets
11 0.69 0.06 Pacers
2 6.98 3.49 Pelicans
11 -8.34 -0.76 Pistons
15 11.29 0.75 Raptors
16 2.70 0.17 Sonics
4 -0.23 -0.06 Spurs
12 13.55 1.13 Suns
1 -0.03 -0.03 Thunder
11 -8.58 -0.78 Warriors
10 -1.86 -0.19 Wolves

no diff avg max min Team
2 6.98 3.49 7.61 -0.64 Pelicans
4 12.43 3.11 12.28 -0.39 Mavericks
5 8.50 1.70 9.86 -0.72 Jazz
9 12.52 1.39 5.24 -0.52 Bullets
4 4.68 1.17 5.10 -0.18 Clippers
10 11.70 1.17 7.75 -1.20 76ers
12 13.55 1.13 9.51 -2.61 Suns
20 15.16 0.76 8.21 -4.15 Kings
15 11.29 0.75 6.00 -1.23 Raptors
9 6.04 0.67 3.87 -1.63 Grizzlies
11 6.92 0.63 5.69 -2.29 Lakers
17 6.51 0.38 4.81 -2.26 Bucks
5 1.60 0.32 1.68 -0.24 Magic
15 4.26 0.28 4.95 -1.61 Celtics
16 2.70 0.17 9.54 -2.96 Sonics
19 2.42 0.13 10.59 -4.78 Nets
12 1.18 0.10 7.79 -4.17 Hornets
11 0.69 0.06 2.49 -1.47 Pacers
12 -0.03 0.00 4.73 -2.18 Heat
5 -0.15 -0.03 3.80 -3.76 Hawks
1 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Thunder
4 -0.23 -0.06 0.60 -1.08 Spurs
10 -1.42 -0.14 1.68 -1.49 Knicks
10 -1.86 -0.19 3.21 -2.25 Wolves
9 -2.91 -0.32 1.37 -2.26 Bulls
14 -8.46 -0.60 0.83 -2.93 Cavaliers
11 -8.34 -0.76 7.00 -4.53 Pistons
11 -8.58 -0.78 0.54 -2.45 Warriors
15 -11.94 -0.80 4.70 -4.33 Nuggets
8 -7.10 -0.89 0.48 -4.45 Blazers
The most reliable drafter of sufficient volume in this era is Face-in. ANK1990 had bigger hits but took some bums too. The biggest boom or bust guy was Heebs. How big? Let's look at the top 10 over- and under-performers and find out!

diff year pick team name
12.28 3013 50 Mavs Aaron Harrison
10.59 3013 11 Nets Georges Niang
9.86 3011 56 Jazz Mustafa Shakur
9.54 3013 20 Sonics Kristaps Porzingis
9.51 3013 58 Suns Jon Pierce
8.21 3012 6 Kings Stephon Marbury
7.79 3014 35 Hornets Scoonie Murray
7.75 3011 3 76ers Mike Conley
7.61 3010 2 Pel'ans Gary Bossert

-4.01 3011 7 Pistons Joakim Noah
-4.07 3011 6 Nets Spencer Hawes
-4.13 3012 7 Pistons Antoine Walker
-4.13 3013 6 Nuggets D'Angelo Russell
-4.15 3012 9 Kings Kerry Kittles
-4.17 3014 6 Hornets Paul Ahye
-4.33 3011 5 Nuggets Nick Young
-4.45 3010 3 Blazers Scottie Pippen
-4.53 3010 7 Pistons Kenny Smith
-4.78 3012 2 Nets Chalky Studebaker
Even though Mike Conley has a higher career WS/48 and WS/year than Aaron Harrison, the fact that he was drafted 3 and Harrison 50 makes Harrison a much higher overperformer. Similarly there were much worse players than Chalky, whose .07 WS/48 made him a borderline starter, but being picked #2 and dropping out of the league crushes his career numbers. Heebs is the only GM with a top 5 and bottom 5 pick by this metric, but @rv and 20s Navidad get some credit for having a top 10 and bottom 10 in the same draft.

Here's the best and worst pick by team:

team max name
76ers 7.75 Mike Conley
Blazers 0.48 Fred VanVleet
Bucks 4.81 Nick Fazekas
Bullets 5.24 George McCloud
Bulls 1.37 Sarunas Marciulionis
Cavs 0.83 Quincy McCall
Celtics 4.95 Moochie Norris
Clips 5.10 Michael Redd
Grizz 3.87 Delon Wright
Hawks 3.80 Frank Kaminsky
Heat 4.73 Allen Iverson
Hornets 7.79 Scoonie Murray
Jazz 9.86 Mustafa Shakur
Kings 8.21 Stephon Marbury
Knicks 1.68 Broderick Langhi
Lakers 5.69 Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Magic 1.68 Chris Mihm
Mavs 12.28 Aaron Harrison
Nets 10.59 Georges Niang
Nuggets 4.70 Jermaine O'Neal
Pacers 2.49 Kevin Durant
P'icans 7.61 Gary Bossert
Pistons 7.00 Myles Turner
Raptors 6.00 Andrew Harrison
Sonics 9.54 Kristaps Porzingis
Spurs 0.60 Terry Davis
Suns 9.51 Jon Pierce
Thunder -0.03 Toney Mack
Ws 0.54 Jahlil Okafor
Wolves 3.21 Stacey King

team min name
76ers -1.20 Isaac Gaines
Blazers -4.45 Scottie Pippen
Bucks -2.26 Thaddeus Young
Bullets -0.52 Kelly Oubre
Bulls -2.26 Derrick McKey
Cavs -2.93 DerMarr Johnson
Celtics -1.61 Glen Davis
Clips -0.18 Etan Thomas
Grizz -1.63 Dino Radja
Hawks -3.76 Kevin Johnson
Heat -2.18 Karl-Anthony Towns
Hornets -4.17 Paul Ahye
Jazz -0.72 Tom Hammonds
Kings -4.15 Kerry Kittles
Knicks -1.49 Deshawn Olsen
Lakers -2.29 Bart Kofoed
Magic -0.24 Emmanuel Mudiay
Mavs -0.39 Erick Barkley
Nets -4.78 Chalky Studebaker
Nuggets -4.33 Nick Young
Pacers -1.47 Jason Smith
P'cans -0.64 Norwood Barber
Pistons -4.53 Kenny Smith
Raptors -1.23 Waterbug Grant
Sonics -2.96 Jeff Green
Spurs -1.08 Jerome Moiso
Suns -2.61 Justice Winslow
Thunder -0.03 Toney Mack
Ws -2.45 Mike Miller
Wolves -2.25 Marcus Fizer

And here's every pick made, just in case anyone wanted to see what guy did what.

year pick Round mp ws ws/48 ws/yr pred diff name
3010 1 76ers 25153 85 0.162 7.70 5.69 2.01 David Robinson
3010 2 Pellies 33237 146 0.211 13.30 5.69 7.61 Gary Bossert
3010 3 Blazers 9415 14 0.069 1.24 5.69 -4.45 Scottie Pippen
3010 4 Nuggets 24006 26 0.051 2.33 5.69 -3.35 Dennis Hopson
3010 5 Hawks 6677 5 0.034 0.43 4.20 -3.76 Kevin Johnson
3010 6 Celtics 27130 77 0.136 6.98 4.20 2.79 Armen Gilliam
3010 7 Pistons 8565 -4 -0.021 -0.34 4.20 -4.53 Kenny Smith
3010 8 Nets 16336 28 0.082 2.53 4.20 -1.66 Reggie Miller
3010 9 Sonics 18585 32 0.083 2.91 4.20 -1.29 Mark Jackson
3010 10 Kings 24167 63 0.125 5.71 4.20 1.51 Athansios Cathasach
3010 11 Bulls 0 0 0.000 0.00 2.26 -2.26 Derrick McKey
3010 12 Lakers 5929 -6 -0.047 -0.53 1.76 -2.29 Bart Kofoed
3010 13 Pistons 7952 5 0.031 0.47 1.76 -1.29 Reggie Lewis
3010 14 Mavs 15973 29 0.087 2.62 1.76 0.86 Muggsy Bogues
3010 15 Hornets 1105 2 0.098 0.21 1.76 -1.56 Olden Polynice
3010 16 Celtics 15422 41 0.126 3.69 1.76 1.93 Chris Welp
3010 17 Sonics 260 0 -0.068 -0.03 1.76 -1.80 Reggie Williams
3010 18 Kings 6025 4 0.028 0.32 1.08 -0.76 Brad Lohaus
3010 19 Blazers 1461 1 0.028 0.08 1.08 -1.00 Dallas Comegys
3010 20 Cavs 4971 9 0.086 0.81 1.08 -0.26 Horace Grant
3010 21 Bulls 1291 1 0.033 0.08 1.08 -1.00 Joe Wolf
3010 22 Celtics 1453 1 0.025 0.07 1.08 -1.01 Chris Dudley
3010 23 Sonics 6227 13 0.101 1.19 1.08 0.12 Theofanis Christodoulou
3010 24 Nets 3428 0 0.007 0.04 0.76 -0.72 Benny Bolton
3010 25 Raptors 9054 8 0.045 0.77 0.61 0.16 Hansi Gnad
3010 26 Knicks 271 0 0.085 0.04 0.61 -0.56 Jamie Dixon
3010 27 Nets 8445 -1 -0.003 -0.05 0.38 -0.43 Lester Fonville
3010 28 Nuggets 6513 -3 -0.020 -0.24 0.38 -0.62 Gay Elmore
3010 29 Nets 8802 -6 -0.034 -0.56 0.38 -0.94 Steve Alford

3010 30 Bulls 14947 19 0.062 1.75 0.38 1.37 Sarunas Marciulionis
3010 31 Pellies 4034 -3 -0.034 -0.26 0.38 -0.64 Norwood Barber
3010 32 Nuggets 2232 -3 -0.069 -0.29 0.38 -0.67 Song Tao
3010 33 Celtics 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Ron Grandison
3010 34 Celtics 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Doug Lee
3010 35 Pistons 3857 1 0.008 0.06 0.38 -0.32 Ken Norman
3010 36 Blazers 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Bruce Dalrymple
3010 37 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38
3010 38 Nets 6129 -3 -0.025 -0.28 0.38 -0.67 Winston Garland
3010 39 Kings 1980 -2 -0.045 -0.17 0.18 -0.35 Phil Zevenbergen
3010 40 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 41 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 42 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 43 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 44 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 45 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 46 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 47 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 48 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 49 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 50 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 51 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 52 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 53 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 54 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 55 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 56 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 57 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3010 58 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18

year draft pick Round mp ws ws/48 ws/yr pred diff name
3011 1 Pacers 26332 82 0.149 8.18 5.69 2.49 Kevin Durant
3011 2 Kings 27735 94 0.162 9.37 5.69 3.68 Greg Oden
3011 3 76ers 29848 134 0.216 13.44 5.69 7.75 Mike Conley
3011 4 Lakers 28474 64 0.108 6.39 5.69 0.71 Al Horford
3011 5 Nuggets 7099 -1 -0.009 -0.14 4.20 -4.33 Nick Young
3011 6 Nets 4961 1 0.012 0.13 4.20 -4.07 Spencer Hawes
3011 7 Pistons 4184 2 0.021 0.18 4.20 -4.01 Joakim Noah
3011 8 Sonics 8020 12 0.074 1.23 4.20 -2.96 Jeff Green
3011 9 Sonics 25720 61 0.115 6.15 4.20 1.95 Yi Jianlian
3011 10 Blazers 9143 25 0.131 2.50 4.20 -1.69 Tiago Splitter
3011 11 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 2.26 -2.26 Thaddeus Young
3011 12 Bucks 25056 66 0.126 6.57 1.76 4.81 Nick Fazekas
3011 13 Bucks 11022 17 0.075 1.73 1.76 -0.03 Arron Afflalo
3011 14 Nets 17072 53 0.148 5.26 1.76 3.50 Acie Law IV
3011 15 Celtics 994 2 0.074 0.15 1.76 -1.61 Glen Davis
3011 16 76ers 22435 35 0.074 3.47 1.76 1.71 Marc Gasol
3011 17 Pacers 3954 3 0.036 0.30 1.76 -1.47 Jason Smith
3011 18 Bucks 3203 3 0.052 0.35 1.08 -0.73 Sean Williams
3011 19 Kings 2091 1 0.024 0.11 1.08 -0.97 Corey Brewer
3011 20 Kings 1584 0 -0.002 0.00 1.08 -1.08 Javaris Crittenton
3011 21 Hornets 1202 0 -0.004 -0.01 1.08 -1.09 Wilson Chandler
3011 22 Pacers 7259 12 0.077 1.17 1.08 0.09 Rodney Stuckey
3011 23 Nets 11596 26 0.108 2.60 1.08 1.52 Josh McRoberts
3011 24 Suns 1589 1 0.021 0.07 0.76 -0.69 Petteri Koponen
3011 25 Knicks 1813 2 0.063 0.24 0.61 -0.37 Jared Dudley
3011 26 Sonics 57 0 0.004 0.00 0.61 -0.61 Daequan Cook
3011 27 Kings 5146 -2 -0.017 -0.18 0.38 -0.56 Marco Belinelli
3011 28 Raptors 17228 41 0.113 4.07 0.38 3.69 Julian Wright
3011 29 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Jermareo Davidson

3011 30 Raptors 198 0 0.043 0.02 0.38 -0.36 Aaron Brooks
3011 31 Nuggets 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Kyrylo Fesenko
3011 32 Raptors 5278 8 0.073 0.81 0.38 0.42 Morris Almond
3011 33 Nets 20422 34 0.081 3.44 0.38 3.06 DJ Strawberry
3011 34 Kings 1390 1 0.048 0.14 0.38 -0.24 Al Thornton
3011 35 Celtics 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Brad Newley
3011 36 Pistons 1102 1 0.032 0.07 0.38 -0.31 JamesOn Curry
3011 37 Sonics 14 0 -0.143 0.00 0.38 -0.39 Stanko Barac
3011 38 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Brandan Wright
3011 39 Bulls 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Giorgios Printezis
3011 40 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Stephane Lasme
3011 41 Heat 3826 -4 -0.046 -0.37 0.18 -0.55 Rudy Fernandez
3011 42 Kings 23 0 -0.049 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Reyshawn Terry
3011 43 Hawks 1556 3 0.106 0.34 0.18 0.16 Alando Tucker
3011 44 Celtics 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Anthony Tolliver
3011 45 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Forfeit
3011 46 Knicks 16549 15 0.043 1.48 0.18 1.30 Aaron Gray
3011 47 Wolves 6504 -11 -0.081 -1.10 0.18 -1.29 Dominic McGuire
3011 48 Bulls 5 0 -0.654 -0.01 0.18 -0.19 Coby Karl
3011 49 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Forfeit
3011 50 Hornets 102 0 -0.023 0.00 0.18 -0.19 Chris Richard
3011 51 Hawks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Carl Landry
3011 52 Kings 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Gary Neal
3011 53 Jazz 123 0 0.105 0.03 0.18 -0.15 Herbert Hill
3011 54 Knicks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Gustavo Ayon
3011 55 Magic 2225 0 -0.002 -0.01 0.18 -0.19 Joel Anthony
3011 56 Jazz 23142 100 0.208 10.04 0.18 9.86 Mustafa Shakur
3011 57 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Forfeit
3011 58 Nuggets 1292 -2 -0.068 -0.18 0.18 -0.36 Jared Jordan

year draft pick Round mp ws ws/48 ws/yr pred diff name
3012 1 Nuggets 21876 29 0.064 3.25 5.69 -2.43 Kobe Bryant
3012 2 Nets 5655 8 0.069 0.90 5.69 -4.78 Chalky Studebaker
3012 3 76ers 23222 68 0.140 7.54 5.69 1.85 Ray Allen
3012 4 Lakers 23414 102 0.210 11.38 5.69 5.69 Shareef Abdur-Rahim
3012 5 Heat 25808 80 0.149 8.93 4.20 4.73 Allen Iverson
3012 6 Kings 24997 112 0.214 12.40 4.20 8.21 Stephon Marbury
3012 7 Pistons 2590 1 0.011 0.07 4.20 -4.13 Antoine Walker
3012 8 Pacers 17088 41 0.117 4.61 4.20 0.41 Marcus Camby
3012 9 Kings 307 0 0.070 0.05 4.20 -4.15 Kerry Kittles
3012 10 Nuggets 23865 80 0.161 8.90 4.20 4.70 Jermaine O'Neal
3012 11 Raptors 22445 57 0.122 6.36 2.26 4.10 Walter McCarty
3012 12 Bucks 5150 4 0.036 0.43 1.76 -1.34 Todd Fuller
3012 13 Kings 18933 36 0.092 4.02 1.76 2.26 Ben Wallace
3012 14 Wolves 5426 7 0.059 0.74 1.76 -1.03 Peja Stojakovic
3012 15 Hornets 18606 30 0.079 3.38 1.76 1.62 Zydrunas Ilgauskas
3012 16 Kings 13676 32 0.113 3.58 1.76 1.82 Othella Harrington
3012 17 Suns 23143 78 0.162 8.68 1.76 6.91 Steve Nash
3012 18 Nets 6399 1 0.011 0.17 1.08 -0.91 Kurt Jackson
3012 19 Kings 17632 41 0.112 4.56 1.08 3.48 Phil Lovelette
3012 20 Raptors 441 1 0.063 0.06 1.08 -1.01 Jamie Feick
3012 21 Knicks 20789 25 0.057 2.76 1.08 1.68 Broderick Langhi
3012 22 76ers 2272 0 -0.006 -0.03 1.08 -1.11 Roy Rogers Jr
3012 23 Nuggets 4101 0 0.005 0.05 1.08 -1.03 Jesus Abdul-Wahad
3012 24 Celtics 15958 51 0.155 5.71 0.76 4.95 Moochie Norris
3012 25 Raptors 1762 1 0.040 0.16 0.61 -0.45 Bill Murray
3012 26 Lakers 23057 40 0.084 4.47 0.61 3.86 Priest Lauderdale
3012 27 Suns 3281 0 -0.001 -0.01 0.38 -0.39 Derek Fisher
3012 28 76ers 5183 5 0.043 0.52 0.38 0.14 Jerome Williams
3012 29 Nets 144 0 0.090 0.03 0.38 -0.35 Vitaly Potapenko

3012 30 76ers 2826 6 0.105 0.69 0.38 0.31 John Wallace
3012 31 Nuggets 7722 6 0.034 0.62 0.38 0.24 Carl Issel
3012 32 Lakers 1101 0 -0.003 -0.01 0.38 -0.39 Ron Riley
3012 33 Heat 2920 -1 -0.024 -0.16 0.38 -0.55 Samaki Walker
3012 34 Nets 7771 1 0.004 0.08 0.38 -0.30 Erick Dampier
3012 35 Kings 2392 -3 -0.068 -0.38 0.38 -0.76 Trey Campbell
3012 36 Pistons 2788 -2 -0.036 -0.23 0.38 -0.61 Lorenzen Wright
3012 37 Pacers 49 0 0.206 0.02 0.38 -0.36 Malik Rose
3012 38 Sonics 29 0 -0.019 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Jeff McInnis
3012 39 Bucks 387 0 0.024 0.02 0.18 -0.16 Malik Richmond
3012 40 Heat 4287 -5 -0.059 -0.59 0.18 -0.77 Darvin Ham
3012 41 Sonics 957 1 0.070 0.16 0.18 -0.03 Will Cunningham
3012 42 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 43 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 44 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 45 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 46 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 47 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 48 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 49 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 50 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 51 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 52 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 53 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 54 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 55 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 56 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 57 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3012 58 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18

year draft pick Round mp ws ws/48 ws/yr pred diff name
3013 1 Wars 21927 50 0.109 6.23 5.69 0.54 Jahlil Okafor
3013 2 Pistons 22792 101 0.214 12.68 5.69 7.00 Myles Turner
3013 3 Wolves 22995 49 0.102 6.10 5.69 0.41 Stanley Johnson
3013 4 Heat 15845 28 0.085 3.51 5.69 -2.18 Karl-Anthony Towns
3013 5 Magic 16778 32 0.091 3.96 4.20 -0.24 Emmanuel Mudiay
3013 6 Nuggets 2016 1 0.012 0.06 4.20 -4.13 D'Angelo Russell
3013 7 Cavs 20250 36 0.086 4.52 4.20 0.33 Cliff Alexander
3013 8 Grizz 23451 65 0.132 8.07 4.20 3.87 Delon Wright
3013 9 Hawks 21092 64 0.146 7.99 4.20 3.80 Frank Kaminsky
3013 10 Suns 8957 13 0.068 1.59 4.20 -2.61 Justice Winslow
3013 11 Nets 24098 103 0.205 12.85 2.26 10.59 Georges Niang
3013 12 Cavs 9833 1 0.006 0.14 1.76 -1.62 Willie Cauley-Stein
3013 13 Bullets 12159 10 0.039 1.25 1.76 -0.52 Kelly Oubre
3013 14 Sonics 4754 1 0.006 0.07 1.76 -1.69 Jerian Grant
3013 15 Wars 5488 -1 -0.005 -0.08 1.76 -1.84 Kevon Looney
3013 16 Hornets 5750 -2 -0.018 -0.27 1.76 -2.03 Jonah Samake
3013 17 Raptors 15459 26 0.081 3.27 1.76 1.51 Justin Anderson
3013 18 Knicks 5781 -3 -0.028 -0.41 1.08 -1.49 Deshawn Olsen
3013 19 Bullets 12300 19 0.072 2.32 1.08 1.24 Mario Hezonja
3013 20 Sonics 22848 85 0.178 10.61 1.08 9.54 Kristaps Porzingis
3013 21 Grizz 12488 31 0.121 3.92 1.08 2.84 Bobby Portis
3013 22 Suns 11074 29 0.125 3.59 1.08 2.52 Joshua Smith
3013 23 Pistons 8737 16 0.088 2.00 1.08 0.92 RJ Hunter
3013 24 Cavs 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.76 -0.76 Rondae Hollis
3013 25 Hornets 1417 0 -0.016 -0.06 0.61 -0.67 Derek Shelton
3013 26 Pacers 15586 21 0.066 2.66 0.61 2.06 Montrezl Harrell
3013 27 Nets 368 1 0.078 0.07 0.38 -0.31 Tyrone Wallace
3013 28 Nets 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Jake Layman
3013 29 Cavs 3720 -1 -0.017 -0.17 0.38 -0.55 Devin Booker

3013 30 Wolves 7633 4 0.023 0.45 0.38 0.07 Robert Upshaw
3013 31 Nuggets 1042 1 0.054 0.15 0.38 -0.24 Dakari Johnson
3013 32 Heat 7131 0 0.003 0.05 0.38 -0.33 Chris Obekpa
3013 33 Magic 3575 4 0.056 0.52 0.38 0.14 Tyus Jones
3013 34 Cavs 951 2 0.095 0.24 0.38 -0.15 Sam Dekker
3013 35 Pistons 66 0 -0.088 -0.02 0.38 -0.40 Anthony Brown
3013 36 Nuggets 180 0 -0.024 -0.01 0.38 -0.39 Rashad Vaughn
3013 37 Grizz 2039 2 0.043 0.23 0.38 -0.15 Kennedy Meeks
3013 38 Grizz 6603 11 0.082 1.41 0.38 1.03 Aaron White
3013 39 Nets 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Ron Baker
3013 40 Suns 157 0 0.006 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Dez Wells
3013 41 Bucks 1659 0 0.012 0.05 0.18 -0.13 Terrell Morgan
3013 42 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Aleksandar Vezenkov
3013 43 Bullets 1748 0 0.007 0.03 0.18 -0.15 Chris Walker
3013 44 76ers 3876 4 0.052 0.52 0.18 0.34 Michael Frazier
3013 45 Hornets 1609 1 0.015 0.06 0.18 -0.12 Christian Wood
3013 46 Raptors 18324 49 0.129 6.18 0.18 6.00 Andrew Harrison
3013 47 Knicks 131 0 -0.014 0.00 0.18 -0.19 Vince Nesby
3013 48 Hawks 68 0 0.070 0.01 0.18 -0.17 AJ Hammons
3013 49 Blazers 6947 5 0.037 0.66 0.18 0.48 Fred VanVleet
3013 50 Mavs 22436 100 0.213 12.46 0.18 12.28 Aaron Harrison
3013 51 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Yogi Ferrell
3013 52 Blazers 57 0 0.061 0.01 0.18 -0.17 Joseph Young
3013 53 Kings 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Terran Petteway
3013 54 Clips 97 0 -0.009 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Mouhammadou Jaiteh
3013 55 Pacers 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Marcus Paige
3013 56 Bullets 3161 1 0.011 0.09 0.18 -0.09 Moussa Diagne
3013 57 Wars 6147 0 -0.003 -0.05 0.18 -0.23 Caris LeVert
3013 58 Suns 22364 78 0.166 9.69 0.18 9.51 Jon Pierce

year draft pick Round mp ws ws/48 ws/yr pred diff name
3014 1 Heat 19140 36 0.090 5.15 5.69 -0.53 Juan Keaney
3014 2 Wars 18117 29 0.077 4.17 5.69 -1.52 Kenyon Martin
3014 3 Magic 18033 52 0.137 7.37 5.69 1.68 Chris Mihm
3014 4 Wolves 16637 24 0.069 3.44 5.69 -2.25 Marcus Fizer
3014 5 Cavs 13876 35 0.122 5.02 4.20 0.83 Quincy McCall
3014 6 Hornets 3357 0 0.003 0.03 4.20 -4.17 Paul Ahye
3014 7 Sonics 13188 22 0.081 3.17 4.20 -1.03 Bob Douglas
3014 8 Bullets 18357 49 0.128 7.00 4.20 2.80 Stromile Swift
3014 9 Cavs 6867 9 0.062 1.26 4.20 -2.93 DerMarr Johnson
3014 10 Grizz 15050 34 0.108 4.85 4.20 0.65 Desmond Mason
3014 11 Wars 2763 -1 -0.024 -0.19 2.26 -2.45 Mike Miller
3014 12 Raptors 8175 15 0.086 2.10 1.76 0.34 Jamal Crawford
3014 13 Knicks 7322 2 0.014 0.31 1.76 -1.45 Hedo Turkoglu
3014 14 Bucks 14392 35 0.117 4.99 1.76 3.23 Quentin Richardson
3014 15 Clips 18008 48 0.128 6.86 1.76 5.10 Michael Redd
3014 16 Wolves 7737 2 0.014 0.32 1.76 -1.44 Joel Pryzbilla
3014 17 Pistons 8299 8 0.045 1.12 1.76 -0.64 Mamadou N'Diaye
3014 18 Sonics 15904 35 0.106 5.02 1.08 3.95 Dalibor Bagaric
3014 19 Pacers 3442 3 0.038 0.39 1.08 -0.69 Darius Miles
3014 20 Heat 1924 1 0.019 0.11 1.08 -0.97 DeShawn Stevenson
3014 21 Spurs 0 0 0.000 0.00 1.08 -1.08 Jerome Moiso
3014 22 Cavs 10885 7 0.032 1.03 1.08 -0.05 Tristan Benjamin
3014 23 Grizz 25 0 0.178 0.01 1.08 -1.06 Thomas Kersey
3014 24 Cavs 2450 -3 -0.051 -0.37 0.76 -1.13 Keyon Dooling
3014 25 Lakers 8637 1 0.004 0.11 0.61 -0.50 Speedy Claxton
3014 26 Wars 3008 0 -0.007 -0.07 0.61 -0.67 Jake Tsakalidis
3014 27 Clips 2806 1 0.024 0.20 0.38 -0.18 Etan Thomas
3014 28 Cavs 747 0 0.024 0.05 0.38 -0.33 Mike Smith
3014 29 Spurs 4034 6 0.069 0.83 0.38 0.45 Primoz Brezec

3014 30 Suns 177 0 0.034 0.02 0.38 -0.36 Morris Peterson
3014 31 Wars 4890 -3 -0.025 -0.36 0.38 -0.74 Marko Jaric
3014 32 Heat 3017 1 0.014 0.13 0.38 -0.26 Dan Langhi
3014 33 Suns 167 0 0.130 0.06 0.38 -0.32 Igor Rakocevic
3014 34 Magic 4664 4 0.042 0.58 0.38 0.20 Jesse Dickau
3014 35 Hornets 19527 57 0.141 8.17 0.38 7.79 Scoonie Murray
3014 36 Mavs 1733 0 0.011 0.06 0.38 -0.32 Donnell Harvey
3014 37 Bullets 14400 26 0.087 3.72 0.38 3.34 Jamaal Magloire
3014 38 Mavs 259 0 -0.008 -0.01 0.38 -0.39 Erick Barkley
3014 39 Jazz 1713 -1 -0.036 -0.19 0.18 -0.37 Courtney Alexander
3014 40 Bucks 7 0 0.052 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Scoonie Penn
3014 41 Spurs 351 0 -0.020 -0.02 0.18 -0.20 Mateen Cleaves
3014 42 Nuggets 5562 7 0.063 1.05 0.18 0.87 Mobius Bryant
3014 43 Knicks 1626 0 0.005 0.02 0.18 -0.16 Olumide Oyedeji
3014 44 Bulls 950 1 0.061 0.17 0.18 -0.01 Eduardo Najera
3014 45 Heat 2739 0 0.008 0.06 0.18 -0.12 Ernest Brown
3014 46 Celtics 1828 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Soumaila Samake
3014 47 Clips 1159 1 0.040 0.14 0.18 -0.04 Josip Sesar
3014 48 Nets 112 0 0.013 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Khalid El-Amin
3014 49 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3014 50 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18
3014 51 Raptors 290 0 0.062 0.05 0.18 -0.13 Jake Voskuhl
3014 52 Jazz 211 0 0.093 0.06 0.18 -0.12 Eddie House
3014 53 76ers 458 1 0.053 0.07 0.18 -0.11 Pepe Sanchez
3014 54 Kings 10994 31 0.133 4.36 0.18 4.18 Ime Udoka
3014 55 Lakers 11 0 -0.050 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Chris Carrawell
3014 56 Lakers 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Malik Allen
3014 57 Celtics 4436 4 0.047 0.62 0.18 0.44 DeeAndre Hulett
3014 58 Celtics 2016 0 0.001 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Mark Madsen

year draft pick Round mp ws ws/48 ws/yr pred diff name
3015 1 Wars 16006 30 0.090 4.98 5.69 -0.71 Shawn Kemp
3015 2 Cavs 16454 31 0.091 5.18 5.69 -0.51 Pervis Ellison
3015 3 Heat 17216 46 0.128 7.65 5.69 1.97 Glen Rice
3015 4 Wolves 13576 29 0.103 4.85 5.69 -0.84 Tim Hardaway
3015 5 Wars 14718 26 0.085 4.32 4.20 0.13 Sean Elliot
3015 6 Raptors 9491 20 0.103 3.40 4.20 -0.79 Danny Ferry
3015 7 Bullets 17250 57 0.158 9.44 4.20 5.24 George McCloud
3015 8 Sonics 10368 11 0.053 1.89 4.20 -2.30 Mookie Blaylock
3015 9 Hornets 5572 3 0.027 0.52 4.20 -3.68 Nick Anderson
3015 10 Bucks 15013 45 0.143 7.46 4.20 3.26 Vlade Divac
3015 11 Cavs 1948 3 0.065 0.44 2.26 -1.82 Gary Leonard
3015 12 Cavs 10956 14 0.059 2.25 1.76 0.49 Chris Childs
3015 13 Wolves 14969 30 0.096 4.97 1.76 3.21 Stacey King
3015 14 Blazers 9887 9 0.044 1.50 1.76 -0.27 Clifford Robinson
3015 15 Kings 4637 8 0.085 1.37 1.76 -0.39 Sherman Douglas
3015 16 Lakers 2627 5 0.098 0.89 1.76 -0.87 Pooh Richardson
3015 17 Grizz 1612 1 0.023 0.13 1.76 -1.63 Dino Radja
3015 18 Pacers 3530 4 0.054 0.67 1.08 -0.41 JR Reid
3015 19 Pacers 0 0 0.000 0.00 1.08 -1.08 Chucky Brown
3015 20 Grizz 11330 15 0.062 2.43 1.08 1.36 Randy White
3015 21 Grizz 856 1 0.071 0.21 1.08 -0.87 Rocky Francis
3015 22 Raptors 1171 2 0.070 0.28 1.08 -0.79 Todd Lichti
3015 23 Hornets 6226 0 0.001 0.02 1.08 -1.06 Drew Nichols
3015 24 Wolves 7127 11 0.076 1.89 0.76 1.13 Dana Barros
3015 25 Raptors 7585 -4 -0.024 -0.62 0.61 -1.23 Waterbug Grant
3015 26 Wolves 2883 5 0.077 0.77 0.61 0.17 Doug Roth
3015 27 Knicks 5002 2 0.022 0.38 0.38 -0.01 Taylor Swift
3015 28 Wars 2416 -2 -0.032 -0.27 0.38 -0.65 BJ Armstrong
3015 29 Bullets 5964 8 0.062 1.29 0.38 0.91 Adrian Caldwell

3015 30 Lakers 8174 9 0.053 1.50 0.38 1.12 Kenny Battle
3015 31 Heat 1468 -1 -0.020 -0.10 0.38 -0.49 Russ Schell
3015 32 Wars 2313 0 -0.007 -0.06 0.38 -0.44 Kenny Payne
3015 33 Suns 1406 0 -0.016 -0.08 0.38 -0.46 Junie Lewis
3015 34 Nets 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.38 -0.38 Jaren Jackson
3015 35 Bullets 688 1 0.053 0.13 0.38 -0.25 Jay Edwards
3015 36 Spurs 4819 6 0.058 0.98 0.38 0.60 Terry Davis
3015 37 Sonics 1100 1 0.034 0.13 0.38 -0.25 Roy Marble
3015 38 Hornets 14472 40 0.133 6.70 0.38 6.32 Michael Smith
3015 39 Suns 152 0 -0.027 -0.01 0.18 -0.20 Scoonie Sura
3015 40 Jazz 5770 -3 -0.027 -0.54 0.18 -0.72 Tom Hammonds
3015 41 Raptors 2 0 0.006 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Jeff Sanders
3015 42 Blazers 5617 3 0.029 0.56 0.18 0.38 Blue Edwards
3015 43 Lakers 691 1 0.053 0.13 0.18 -0.05 Haywoode Workman
3015 44 Bucks 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Anthony Cook
3015 45 Bucks 9519 10 0.051 1.69 0.18 1.51 LaDon Childs
3015 46 Celtics 1321 0 -0.013 -0.06 0.18 -0.24 Brandon Butler
3015 47 Suns 327 0 -0.014 -0.02 0.18 -0.20 Hahn Dampier
3015 48 Pacers 114 0 -0.010 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Brian Quinnett
3015 49 Bulls 757 1 0.051 0.13 0.18 -0.05 Xavier Pollard
3015 50 Celtics 2287 -4 -0.092 -0.73 0.18 -0.91 Hayden McCoy
3015 51 Nuggets 2048 2 0.054 0.38 0.18 0.20 Byron Irvin
3015 52 Bulls 2229 -1 -0.031 -0.24 0.18 -0.42 John Morton
3015 53 Kings 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Mike Morrison
3015 54 Celtics 5261 -1 -0.011 -0.21 0.18 -0.39 Myles Garnett
3015 55 Bulls 0 0 0.000 0.00 0.18 -0.18 Mike Higgins
3015 56 Thunder 743 1 0.057 0.15 0.18 -0.03 Toney Mack
3015 57 Sonics 588 0 0.024 0.05 0.18 -0.13 Scoonie Hayes
3015 58 76ers 1752 -6 -0.167 -1.02 0.18 -1.20 Isaac Gaines