Post by eric on Sept 13, 2015 17:59:36 GMT -6
I am on the record as a Wiggins doubter, and as a general doubter of the "international tournaments are a springboard for NBA success!" narrative (2010 Rose, 2012 LeBron, etc. ad nauseum). As you may have heard but in fact have definitely not, heavily favored Canada suffered a shock loss to Venezuela in the semifinals of the FIBA Americas tournament before narrowly winning third place yesterday and therefore not (yet) qualifying for the 2016 Olympics. That they did not win should already take the air out of the "Wiggins learned how to win!!!" b***shit narrative, but I am not primarily interested in such narratives. I am interested in facts. Here are the facts.
Wiggins' chief stumbling blocks as an NBA wing last year were that he could not shoot (31% from three) or pass (2.1 assists to 2.2 turnovers) although he demonstrated very good finishing ability (67% at the rim, 41% free throw rate). In the modern (hybrid zone) NBA, it is really hard to be a good offensive perimeter player without two of the three offensive skills (finishing/shooting/passing), and thus it is not a surprise that the Timberwolves were better with Wiggins on the bench than on the floor.
Even a full NBA season is in fact a small sample when it comes to distinguishing a good shooter from a poor shooter, and this is before systemic uncertainties (i.e. roster construction, strength of schedule, shot selection, etc.). Obviously a ten game tournament is that much smaller, and so good and bad should be taken with a grain of salt, but at the same time all data tells us something, so let's see what this data tells us.
GOOD
1. Flashed a serious three point stroke at 52%. Even though this was from the shorter international distance, his 16-23 foot jumper was an even lower raw % than his three so it counts as an improvement.
2. Continued to draw fouls at an excellent rate. FIBA officials are notoriously terrible, so who knows, but his rate was identical to last year's in the NBA at 41% and above team average.
3. Led a team with several NBA players in scoring, both overall and per-minute.
BAD
1. Was below team average in points per true shot attempt.
2. Continued to be a horrible passer (23 assists to 21 turnovers). If not for a Kelly Olynyk turnover spree in the third place game would have led the team in turnovers despite being T-fourth in assists, finishing behind Cory Joseph, Nik Stauskas, and a guy literally named Scrubb.
3. Rebounded below team average.
4. Finished fourth on his team in Win Shares, and seventh(!) in WS/48.
Wiggins strikes me as a classic small forward, in the mold of Jacques Dominique Wilkins or Andre Iguodala. His dunks are jaw-dropping, his body looks perfect, but he's out to sea in the modern NBA. "Aha!", you might cry, "Iguodala just won the Finals MVP!" You ignorant slut. Everything in the past four years has been about LeBron: either LeBron has won the FMVP or the guy who defended him has won it. Wiggins will never face LeBron in the Finals, therefore citing Iguodala's FMVP is meaningless. If Wiggins continues on his FIBA Americas track the only part of Iguodala's game he will mimic is never making an All-NBA team.
.
Stats Appendix
Box Score
Win Shares
Win Shares per 48 minute, and yes I know they only play 40 minutes in FIBer
Wiggins' chief stumbling blocks as an NBA wing last year were that he could not shoot (31% from three) or pass (2.1 assists to 2.2 turnovers) although he demonstrated very good finishing ability (67% at the rim, 41% free throw rate). In the modern (hybrid zone) NBA, it is really hard to be a good offensive perimeter player without two of the three offensive skills (finishing/shooting/passing), and thus it is not a surprise that the Timberwolves were better with Wiggins on the bench than on the floor.
Even a full NBA season is in fact a small sample when it comes to distinguishing a good shooter from a poor shooter, and this is before systemic uncertainties (i.e. roster construction, strength of schedule, shot selection, etc.). Obviously a ten game tournament is that much smaller, and so good and bad should be taken with a grain of salt, but at the same time all data tells us something, so let's see what this data tells us.
GOOD
1. Flashed a serious three point stroke at 52%. Even though this was from the shorter international distance, his 16-23 foot jumper was an even lower raw % than his three so it counts as an improvement.
2. Continued to draw fouls at an excellent rate. FIBA officials are notoriously terrible, so who knows, but his rate was identical to last year's in the NBA at 41% and above team average.
3. Led a team with several NBA players in scoring, both overall and per-minute.
BAD
1. Was below team average in points per true shot attempt.
2. Continued to be a horrible passer (23 assists to 21 turnovers). If not for a Kelly Olynyk turnover spree in the third place game would have led the team in turnovers despite being T-fourth in assists, finishing behind Cory Joseph, Nik Stauskas, and a guy literally named Scrubb.
3. Rebounded below team average.
4. Finished fourth on his team in Win Shares, and seventh(!) in WS/48.
Wiggins strikes me as a classic small forward, in the mold of Jacques Dominique Wilkins or Andre Iguodala. His dunks are jaw-dropping, his body looks perfect, but he's out to sea in the modern NBA. "Aha!", you might cry, "Iguodala just won the Finals MVP!" You ignorant slut. Everything in the past four years has been about LeBron: either LeBron has won the FMVP or the guy who defended him has won it. Wiggins will never face LeBron in the Finals, therefore citing Iguodala's FMVP is meaningless. If Wiggins continues on his FIBA Americas track the only part of Iguodala's game he will mimic is never making an All-NBA team.
.
Stats Appendix
Box Score
MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB REB AST TOV STL BLK PF PTS Name
167 29 50 7 16 11 17 10 54 12 9 2 3 13 76 A. BENNETT
132 12 28 5 14 4 6 6 37 15 4 5 1 21 33 A. DOORNEKAMP
140 30 54 10 21 4 7 11 38 12 10 3 1 14 74 A. NICHOLSON
255 53 107 15 29 30 44 14 44 23 21 8 5 17 151 A. WIGGINS
197 36 86 27 64 8 12 5 13 14 5 3 0 9 107 B. HESLIP
234 35 77 2 10 27 32 8 38 57 13 9 4 20 99 C. JOSEPH (C)
77 15 30 0 0 12 18 10 28 4 10 0 2 17 42 D. POWELL
217 42 76 10 23 25 30 19 75 23 22 3 9 21 119 K. OLYNYK
122 19 41 0 6 18 22 23 47 13 8 3 3 30 56 M. EJIM
208 34 66 18 36 25 25 2 35 28 6 7 3 10 111 N. STAUSKAS
169 26 58 12 25 12 14 2 19 25 9 3 0 13 76 P. SCRUBB
79 10 22 0 0 9 13 4 15 6 4 1 3 12 29 R. SACREWin Shares
1.46 N. STAUSKAS
1.25 C. JOSEPH (C)
1.15 K. OLYNYK
1.03 A. WIGGINS
0.79 A. BENNETT
0.72 M. EJIM
0.72 B. HESLIP
0.65 P. SCRUBB
0.62 A. NICHOLSON
0.51 A. DOORNEKAMP
0.22 R. SACRE
0.19 D. POWELLWin Shares per 48 minute, and yes I know they only play 40 minutes in FIBer
0.336 N. STAUSKAS
0.284 M. EJIM
0.257 C. JOSEPH (C)
0.256 K. OLYNYK
0.226 A. BENNETT
0.212 A. NICHOLSON
0.194 A. WIGGINS
0.187 A. DOORNEKAMP
0.184 P. SCRUBB
0.176 B. HESLIP
0.135 R. SACRE
0.120 D. POWELL
