Post by eric on Sept 25, 2015 10:56:16 GMT -6
Prompted by Face-in, I ran the following tests, each with 10 seasons.
1. League of all 50 everything players.
2. Take one PG, make him 100 in Handling, Quickness, and Passing.
3. Then also make him 100 in Inside Scoring, Jump Shot, Three Shot, Strength, and Jumping.
4. Then make him 100 in everything.
The team went from 42 to 49 to 70 to 78 wins per season: obviously having an elite PG is really good for winning. But what good is it for the other players on the team? Here are certain stats for the rest of the team...
...where the last row is combined results from tests 2 through 4. It's pretty clear that elite PG play doesn't help the rest of the team shoot at all: if FG% changed at all it went down, the same with points per true shot attempt, but both are probably just noise. One interesting wrinkle was that the rest of the team turned the ball over less per touch and therefore got more shots off (although obviously the super scoring PG took a lot more raw touches) which gave them a slightly better ORTG overall, but again it's a small effect.
Bottom line, having an elite PG is great if you want to win, but if you want to evaluate players across different teams you shouldn't assume that their production is a function of their PG's play (good or bad).
1. League of all 50 everything players.
2. Take one PG, make him 100 in Handling, Quickness, and Passing.
3. Then also make him 100 in Inside Scoring, Jump Shot, Three Shot, Strength, and Jumping.
4. Then make him 100 in everything.
The team went from 42 to 49 to 70 to 78 wins per season: obviously having an elite PG is really good for winning. But what good is it for the other players on the team? Here are certain stats for the rest of the team...
test p/ts fgr ftr tor fg%
1 0.904 0.778 0.071 0.151 0.405
2 0.899 0.788 0.072 0.140 0.403
3 0.896 0.783 0.071 0.146 0.402
4 0.901 0.786 0.071 0.143 0.404
2-4 0.899 0.786 0.071 0.143 0.403...where the last row is combined results from tests 2 through 4. It's pretty clear that elite PG play doesn't help the rest of the team shoot at all: if FG% changed at all it went down, the same with points per true shot attempt, but both are probably just noise. One interesting wrinkle was that the rest of the team turned the ball over less per touch and therefore got more shots off (although obviously the super scoring PG took a lot more raw touches) which gave them a slightly better ORTG overall, but again it's a small effect.
Bottom line, having an elite PG is great if you want to win, but if you want to evaluate players across different teams you shouldn't assume that their production is a function of their PG's play (good or bad).
