Post by eric on Oct 4, 2015 16:09:07 GMT -6
stats thanks to basketball-reference.com
A common criticism of stats in sports is that they don't see everything, and so they can't be relied on, and so Kobe is too great so shut up.
I propose a test: if I can construct a straightforward statistical argument that places noted stats-avoider Bill Russell in the top 10 all time, then those particular stats are Good, and we should listen to them when they tell us a player doesn't stack up.
Long time readers of this site are familiar with Win Shares, but to briefly recap, Win Shares are an attempt to sum up everything a player does that helps (or hurts) a team's wins. Of the publicly available statistics (i.e. Win Shares, Wins Produced, VORP, PER / Estimated Wins Added), they have the lowest error when compared to actual team wins, and so they are the most accurate in ascribing worth to a rebound, a turnover, etc. Let us further observe that random noise is a real thing in every measurement, and so let us say that every member in the top 5 in Win Shares in a given NBA season or postseason gain 1 point for themselves.
How many players have gained at least seven points in the regular and post- seasons? In chronological order...
Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Tim Duncan
LeBron James
These seven players have separated themselves from all others. It so happens that they do not neatly form a gang of ten. So what? Let us not be held hostage by the coincidence of our fingers. If we diminish the requirement to six points, we get Jerry West and Shaquille O'Neal, but how much are we ourselves diminished? To five points: Dolph Schayes, Bob Pettit, Walt Frazier, Larry Bird. To four points: George Mikan, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant... but Karl Malone is garbage, and I suggest we abandon the analysis before we give any praise whatsoever to him, and if Kobe Bryant happens to be standing next to him when that happens, well, don't stand there next time.
A few closing points of curiosity:
If we include ABA performance as full value, then Julius Erving has six points in each and nobody else cracks any group.
A total of 71 players have at least 1 point in both the regular season and playoffs.
A whopping 77 players have at least 1 playoff point but none in the regular season.
Three players have four: James Worthy, Reggie Miller, Wes Unseld.
A mere 32 players have at least 1 regular season point but none in the playoffs.
Two players have five: Ed Macauley (Pettit coat tails rider) and Sidney Moncrief, possibly the most deserving HoF snub: the only guard with multiple DPOY, an All-NBA first team, the best player on an 80s Bucks team that moved to the Eastern Conference and beat the Erving 76ers and Bird Celtics but never in the same year, including a 1987 semifinal classic against the eventual champion Celtics: 7 games, one OT, one double-OT, cumulative score of 850 to 848. Unfortunately this series directly preceded the 1987 conference finals seven game classic between the Celtics and Pistons that included "Bird steals it!!!" and that was only in Game 5, and the next year Michael Jordan won the MVP, and the next year Sidney retired from chronic knee injuries, and Milwaukee is basically in Canada... so nobody remembers those very good nearly-but-not-quite-great 80s Bucks teams, and Sidney stays out while Mitch $%^#ing Richmond (never All-NBA 1st team, never even top 15 reg season or top 50 playoff Win Shares) goes in.
But we have gotten a bit afield. If this stat can recognize Bill Russell, greatest winner and defender of all time, what more intangibles can there be?
A common criticism of stats in sports is that they don't see everything, and so they can't be relied on, and so Kobe is too great so shut up.
I propose a test: if I can construct a straightforward statistical argument that places noted stats-avoider Bill Russell in the top 10 all time, then those particular stats are Good, and we should listen to them when they tell us a player doesn't stack up.
Long time readers of this site are familiar with Win Shares, but to briefly recap, Win Shares are an attempt to sum up everything a player does that helps (or hurts) a team's wins. Of the publicly available statistics (i.e. Win Shares, Wins Produced, VORP, PER / Estimated Wins Added), they have the lowest error when compared to actual team wins, and so they are the most accurate in ascribing worth to a rebound, a turnover, etc. Let us further observe that random noise is a real thing in every measurement, and so let us say that every member in the top 5 in Win Shares in a given NBA season or postseason gain 1 point for themselves.
How many players have gained at least seven points in the regular and post- seasons? In chronological order...
Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Tim Duncan
LeBron James
These seven players have separated themselves from all others. It so happens that they do not neatly form a gang of ten. So what? Let us not be held hostage by the coincidence of our fingers. If we diminish the requirement to six points, we get Jerry West and Shaquille O'Neal, but how much are we ourselves diminished? To five points: Dolph Schayes, Bob Pettit, Walt Frazier, Larry Bird. To four points: George Mikan, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant... but Karl Malone is garbage, and I suggest we abandon the analysis before we give any praise whatsoever to him, and if Kobe Bryant happens to be standing next to him when that happens, well, don't stand there next time.
A few closing points of curiosity:
If we include ABA performance as full value, then Julius Erving has six points in each and nobody else cracks any group.
A total of 71 players have at least 1 point in both the regular season and playoffs.
A whopping 77 players have at least 1 playoff point but none in the regular season.
Three players have four: James Worthy, Reggie Miller, Wes Unseld.
A mere 32 players have at least 1 regular season point but none in the playoffs.
Two players have five: Ed Macauley (Pettit coat tails rider) and Sidney Moncrief, possibly the most deserving HoF snub: the only guard with multiple DPOY, an All-NBA first team, the best player on an 80s Bucks team that moved to the Eastern Conference and beat the Erving 76ers and Bird Celtics but never in the same year, including a 1987 semifinal classic against the eventual champion Celtics: 7 games, one OT, one double-OT, cumulative score of 850 to 848. Unfortunately this series directly preceded the 1987 conference finals seven game classic between the Celtics and Pistons that included "Bird steals it!!!" and that was only in Game 5, and the next year Michael Jordan won the MVP, and the next year Sidney retired from chronic knee injuries, and Milwaukee is basically in Canada... so nobody remembers those very good nearly-but-not-quite-great 80s Bucks teams, and Sidney stays out while Mitch $%^#ing Richmond (never All-NBA 1st team, never even top 15 reg season or top 50 playoff Win Shares) goes in.
But we have gotten a bit afield. If this stat can recognize Bill Russell, greatest winner and defender of all time, what more intangibles can there be?
