Post by eric on Nov 17, 2015 14:50:00 GMT -6
There is an NBA stat called "Usage" which estimates the number of possessions a player finishes with a field goal attempt, free throw attempt, or turnover. It does not tell us, however, whether the player generated those looks for himself or whether they were assisted. stats.nba.com does have a database of % of made field goals assisted going back to the 1997 season. Obviously a player will in general make more field goal attempts that would have been assisted than not, that's the whole point of an assist. If I take field goal attempts at a 50/50 split of assisted and not, then I make 45% on assist and 35% not, my % of field goals assisted is 56.25% even though only 50% of my field goal attempts are. We also have no information on % of free throws that would have been assisted field goals had the player not been fouled, and the same for turnovers.
Keeping that all in mind, let's take a test case and see if the estimate works. This method should allow us to discern between Kevin Durant, Marreese Speights, and Steph Curry, who last year had usage %s of 29.1, 29.1, and 28.9 respectively, and as it turns out Durant was assisted on 56% of his made field goals, Speights on 78%, and Curry on 45%. Thus Curry created his own look on 16% of his team's possessions while on the floor, Durant on 13%, and Speights on 6%. The differences between those three players looks right.
Let's add in ast% (an estimate of how many of a teammate's baskets are assisted by the player while on the court) and get a total playmade% value. Please note that this metric is value neutral. If I create my look 100% of the time and shoot 0% on them I should stop doing that. It is just a measure of how much the ball is in someone's hands. What they do with it from there is for other statistics.
Let's set a season minimum of 1500 minutes and see who has the highest and lowest.
Again, these lists look right. We have ball dominating PGs up top and spot-up / garbage men on the bottom. It's also interesting to see how heavily the top of the list is biased towards recent times. In the 90s the high and low were 99 Rod Strickland at 52% and 98 Terry Davis at 6.5%. We can also look at careers, and using 4000 MP for a career we get:
Looks pretty good to me. DeAndre is an interesting name, certainly he would be low but I would have thought he got enough putbacks to make it higher. Now let's look at some people I think are interesting to look at, all numbers career (1997-2015):
It's simply incredible that LeBron is as efficient as he is given how thoroughly he dominates the ball, which makes the possibility of him moving to a secondary role so tantalizing. McHale numbers are very plausible. It is also interesting to wonder if Michael Jordan's superior efficiency to Kobe Bryant is not just from skill but from having enough sense or courage to have the ball in his hands less, knowing that the spot-up shot always beats the shot off the dribble. As said this only goes back to 97 so it could be a small sample size thing too, but as I said in shout the other day, everyone knows that Jordan made six threes in a Finals half against the Blazers. Most people don't know that all six of those were assisted: three by Paxson, two by Pippen, one by Armstrong.
Another note on Kobe. It is easy to blame his present horrific efficiency on the inevitable diminishing of his physical gifts, and that is surely a big piece of it, but we must also consider whether his decision-making has shifted in an inferior direction. Let us look at moving five year averages of his playmade% and %baskets assisted.
These are not good trends. It makes sense especially in Kobe's case for a player to start slow and reach his level, and we see that through 2009. Then we see a player abruptly increase the amount he has the ball in his hands, and his FG% predictably falls off a cliff. This stands in stark contrast to Jordan who even on the Wizards was being assisted on 50% of his made baskets.
Finally, let's look at MVP numbers.
It is interesting I think that the values are always 20+, and in recent years always 30+. I think this puts Anthony Davis' 12.2 in a very interesting light. We don't have the first three years for Shaq or Karl, but we do have them for Tim Kevin and Dirk, so let's see how they compare to Davis:
He's pretty much in line with Dirk, surprisingly far behind the other two.
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That's all I got for now. If anyone has any thoughts or requests you know where to put them! :)
Keeping that all in mind, let's take a test case and see if the estimate works. This method should allow us to discern between Kevin Durant, Marreese Speights, and Steph Curry, who last year had usage %s of 29.1, 29.1, and 28.9 respectively, and as it turns out Durant was assisted on 56% of his made field goals, Speights on 78%, and Curry on 45%. Thus Curry created his own look on 16% of his team's possessions while on the floor, Durant on 13%, and Speights on 6%. The differences between those three players looks right.
Let's add in ast% (an estimate of how many of a teammate's baskets are assisted by the player while on the court) and get a total playmade% value. Please note that this metric is value neutral. If I create my look 100% of the time and shoot 0% on them I should stop doing that. It is just a measure of how much the ball is in someone's hands. What they do with it from there is for other statistics.
Let's set a season minimum of 1500 minutes and see who has the highest and lowest.
year pm% name
2009 60.6 Chris Paul
2008 58.0 Chris Paul
2010 57.5 Steve Nash
2011 57.5 Steve Nash
2012 55.9 Steve Nash
2015 55.6 Russell Westbrook
2010 55.1 Chris Paul
2011 54.7 Russell Westbrook
2012 54.5 Rajon Rondo
2007 54.3 T.J. Ford
2002 5.2 Ervin Johnson
2004 5.1 Samuel Dalembert
2007 4.9 Jason Collins
2015 4.8 Dante Cunningham
2002 4.6 Kelvin Cato
2009 4.5 Bruce Bowen
2006 4.4 DeSagana Diop
2011 4.1 Joel Anthony
2011 3.9 James Jones
2013 3.6 Steve NovakAgain, these lists look right. We have ball dominating PGs up top and spot-up / garbage men on the bottom. It's also interesting to see how heavily the top of the list is biased towards recent times. In the 90s the high and low were 99 Rod Strickland at 52% and 98 Terry Davis at 6.5%. We can also look at careers, and using 4000 MP for a career we get:
pm % name
53.3 Chris Paul
47.3 Russell Westbrook
47.2 John Wall
46.9 Steve Nash
46.4 John Stockton
45.5 Rod Strickland
45.3 Rajon Rondo
44.5 Mark Jackson
44.4 Deron Williams
43.8 T.J. Ford
6.9 Ervin Johnson
6.5 DeAndre Jordan
6.4 Jim McIlvaine
6.3 Steven Hunter
6.3 Joel Przybilla
6.2 James Jones
6.1 Kelvin Cato
5.6 Bismack Biyombo
4.7 Joel Anthony
4.2 Steve NovakLooks pretty good to me. DeAndre is an interesting name, certainly he would be low but I would have thought he got enough putbacks to make it higher. Now let's look at some people I think are interesting to look at, all numbers career (1997-2015):
pm % name
42.5 Derrick Rose
42.3 Kyrie Irving
42.1 LeBron James
41.5 Dwyane Wade
41.4 Tony Parker
39.2 Allen Iverson
37.2 Stephen Curry
35.0 Chauncey Billups
34.9 Kobe Bryant
31.3 Monta Ellis
30.6 Michael Jordan
30.0 Manu Ginobili
29.4 James Harden
28.1 Vince Carter
26.2 Carmelo Anthony
26.2 Paul Pierce
25.5 Kevin Durant
22.9 Paul George
22.6 Blake Griffin
21.9 Pau Gasol
20.7 Shaquille O'Neal
19.8 Dirk Nowitzki
19.2 Kevin Love
13.4 Klay Thompson
13.2 Kawhi Leonard
13.1 Jimmy Butler
12.2 Anthony Davis
07.0 Serge IbakaIt's simply incredible that LeBron is as efficient as he is given how thoroughly he dominates the ball, which makes the possibility of him moving to a secondary role so tantalizing. McHale numbers are very plausible. It is also interesting to wonder if Michael Jordan's superior efficiency to Kobe Bryant is not just from skill but from having enough sense or courage to have the ball in his hands less, knowing that the spot-up shot always beats the shot off the dribble. As said this only goes back to 97 so it could be a small sample size thing too, but as I said in shout the other day, everyone knows that Jordan made six threes in a Finals half against the Blazers. Most people don't know that all six of those were assisted: three by Paxson, two by Pippen, one by Armstrong.
Another note on Kobe. It is easy to blame his present horrific efficiency on the inevitable diminishing of his physical gifts, and that is surely a big piece of it, but we must also consider whether his decision-making has shifted in an inferior direction. Let us look at moving five year averages of his playmade% and %baskets assisted.
pm% %ast year
29 43% 1999
31 41% 2000
34 43% 2001
34 41% 2002
36 42% 2003
37 43% 2004
37 43% 2005
36 41% 2006
37 42% 2007
36 41% 2008
36 41% 2009
36 40% 2010
37 40% 2011
38 39% 2012
39 38% 2013These are not good trends. It makes sense especially in Kobe's case for a player to start slow and reach his level, and we see that through 2009. Then we see a player abruptly increase the amount he has the ball in his hands, and his FG% predictably falls off a cliff. This stands in stark contrast to Jordan who even on the Wizards was being assisted on 50% of his made baskets.
Finally, let's look at MVP numbers.
year pm% name
2015 41.4 Stephen Curry
2014 34.7 Kevin Durant
2013 42.0 LeBron James
2012 41.6 LeBron James
2011 48.5 Derrick Rose
2010 47.7 LeBron James
2009 46.5 LeBron James
2008 35.0 Kobe Bryant
2007 26.4 Dirk Nowitzki
2006 51.3 Steve Nash
2005 52.9 Steve Nash
2004 26.3 Kevin Garnett
2003 28.4 Tim Duncan
2002 28.5 Tim Duncan
2001 35.0 Allen Iverson
2000 24.3 Shaquille O'Neal
1999 21.3 Karl Malone
1998 28.1 Michael Jordan
1997 23.0 Karl MaloneIt is interesting I think that the values are always 20+, and in recent years always 30+. I think this puts Anthony Davis' 12.2 in a very interesting light. We don't have the first three years for Shaq or Karl, but we do have them for Tim Kevin and Dirk, so let's see how they compare to Davis:
year 1 year 2 year 3 name
9.8 14.2 15.8 Anthony Davis
15.6 14.1 14.4 Dirk Nowitzki
x 16.5 19.7 Kevin Garnett
20.8 19.3 23.8 Tim DuncanHe's pretty much in line with Dirk, surprisingly far behind the other two.
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That's all I got for now. If anyone has any thoughts or requests you know where to put them! :)
