Post by eric on Dec 18, 2015 12:11:23 GMT -6
I opened the floor to requests while I was between major projects and here are the answers.
Face-in wanted to know if the playoffs were rigged, so I made a completely identical league and simmed it 152 times. Because the conferences are uneven we expect each Eastern team to win 50%/15 = 3.3% of the time and each Western team to win 50%/14 = 3.6% of the time, and we in fact find:
The "rando" column is when I just used random chance to assign championships as a comparison. We can also look at statistical significance, and at 95% confidence in the simulation we expect every East team to win between 0.6 and 9.5 times and every West team to win between 0.9 and 10.0, so we have no evidence to reject the hypothesis that the playoffs are truly random.
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Trofie asked to make a team of defensive studs vs. a team of offensive studs, so what I did was give one team {100 Inside Scoring, Jump Shot, Three Shot, Handling, and Passing} and the other team {100 Stealing, Shot Blocking, Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Drive Defense}. Strength and Quickness affect both sides of the ball, each Rebounding I'm pretty sure does the same, and adding Jumping would have given the offensive team six attributes instead of five. As it turned out they probably only needed one, because here were the results, Phoenix being the offensive team:
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ANK1990 asked about rookie potentials. I couldn't make any non-teenaged rookie maintain the same hidden potential, so my guess is it's only teenagers that can do that.
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Heebs asked about focus with regard to shot selection. Focus changes the distribution of shots by position as well as shot selection. All tables below go inside, balanced, outside.
I can't get anything deeper on shot selection without going into the play by play, but it's pretty clear that outside offenses push teams and individual players further away from the basket: more jumpers (hence threes), less rim attempts (hence free throws). Please also note that players have shot preferences based on their attribute distribution, so not all players are going to get to 40% 3Pr just because they're in an outside offense.
Face-in wanted to know if the playoffs were rigged, so I made a completely identical league and simmed it 152 times. Because the conferences are uneven we expect each Eastern team to win 50%/15 = 3.3% of the time and each Western team to win 50%/14 = 3.6% of the time, and we in fact find:
ident rando team
5 7 Boston
9 3 Miami
5 7 New Jersey
8 10 New York
3 5 Orlando
8 4 Philadelphia
4 3 Washington
3 5 Atlanta
6 3 New Orleans
4 8 Chicago
5 5 Cleveland
6 7 Detroit
9 8 Indiana
3 5 Milwaukee
5 5 Toronto
6 5 Dallas
3 7 Denver
6 9 Houston
4 4 Minnesota
7 7 San Antonio
2 5 Utah
9 6 Memphis
4 2 Golden State
8 0 Los Angeles
6 5 Los Angeles
4 6 Phoenix
4 1 Portland
3 6 Sacramento
3 4 SeattleThe "rando" column is when I just used random chance to assign championships as a comparison. We can also look at statistical significance, and at 95% confidence in the simulation we expect every East team to win between 0.6 and 9.5 times and every West team to win between 0.9 and 10.0, so we have no evidence to reject the hypothesis that the playoffs are truly random.
.
Trofie asked to make a team of defensive studs vs. a team of offensive studs, so what I did was give one team {100 Inside Scoring, Jump Shot, Three Shot, Handling, and Passing} and the other team {100 Stealing, Shot Blocking, Post Defense, Perimeter Defense, Drive Defense}. Strength and Quickness affect both sides of the ball, each Rebounding I'm pretty sure does the same, and adding Jumping would have given the offensive team six attributes instead of five. As it turned out they probably only needed one, because here were the results, Phoenix being the offensive team:
chp team
1 Washington
74 Phoenix.
ANK1990 asked about rookie potentials. I couldn't make any non-teenaged rookie maintain the same hidden potential, so my guess is it's only teenagers that can do that.
.
Heebs asked about focus with regard to shot selection. Focus changes the distribution of shots by position as well as shot selection. All tables below go inside, balanced, outside.
Overall usage
C_-PF-SF-SG-PG
22-22-17-17-22
17-17-19-19-28
15-15-17-22-31
3PA/use
SF-SG-PG-bigs
14-12-11-7
16-15-13-10
19-17-15-13
FTA/use
big-wng-PG
10.-7.0-6
8.5-6.5-5
8.0-6.0-5I can't get anything deeper on shot selection without going into the play by play, but it's pretty clear that outside offenses push teams and individual players further away from the basket: more jumpers (hence threes), less rim attempts (hence free throws). Please also note that players have shot preferences based on their attribute distribution, so not all players are going to get to 40% 3Pr just because they're in an outside offense.
