Post by eric on Jan 14, 2016 16:47:46 GMT -6
The last expansion in the big four American leagues occurred in 2005 with the Charlotte Bobcats. The NFL last expanded in 2002, the NHL in 2001, MLB in 1998. This is the longest non-expansion stretch in the past fifty years, surpassing the seven year drought from 1981 to 1988. That got me to thinking: what's the deal with expansion? Here's a graph.
This is a moving five year average of all expansions to all four leagues. There's a massive spike in the late 60s, continued expansion declining to nothing in the 80s, another surge in the 90s, and quiet since. The first period of expansion is obviously due primarily to mergers: the AFL existed from 1960 to 1970, the ABA from 1968 to 1977, the WHA from 1973 to 1980. (MLB had its merger long before this period.) No league has dealt with serious competition since then, thus lessening the pressure to expand.
We can also look at a rough measure of talent pool by looking at # of teams vs. the United States population. Here is a table given in terms of teams per hundred million Americans:
Every league is at its least diluted point since its merger except for the NHL, which is close. Add in the international growth of the NBA especially and it's definitely time for more expansion. The NBA and NHL reached post-merger lows in 1988 and 1991 respectively before engaging in significantly more expansion, accounting for 68% of the post-1980 expansion.
Another way to look at for the non-MLB leagues is the amount of expansion that occurred from competition vs. otherwise. The NHL famously has the Original Six, but the NBA had a similar nucleus of eight and the NFL twelve. That leaves total expansion as 24, 22, and 20; of which competitive expansion and mergers accounted for 7, 12, and 13 respectively; which finally leaves unforced expansion of 17, 10, and 7. I think this is an interesting measurement of the common sentiment that the NHL massively overexpanded while the other leagues grew more organically.
I suggest there should be more expansion, but expansion to where? Let's look at a table of states by the same teams per 100 million metric as above:
I look at this list and I see strong possibilities in the Pacific Northwest and the South. The most populous states with 0 teams are Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut, Iowa, Arkansas, and Mississippi; aside from Connecticut (NY/Boston) and Iowa (Minneapolis?) these are all untapped markets with common heritage, plus Georgia Texas and Oklahoma are in the five most underserved states. Of course there are other factors in addition to raw population size, such as relative wealth and relative urbanization, but still.
Another thoroughly untapped possibility is Canada: only two non-NHL teams exist in Canada, and both are in Toronto. Climate hasn't been an excuse for decades considering the proliferation of domes. The point that Canada only loves hockey (and the related point that the South only loves college football) is not as hefty as you might think. Nobody cared about hockey in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have been in the top 10 of attendance every year of the last four. Oklahoma City has the most raucous home atmosphere in the NBA. If you build it, they will come.
This is a moving five year average of all expansions to all four leagues. There's a massive spike in the late 60s, continued expansion declining to nothing in the 80s, another surge in the 90s, and quiet since. The first period of expansion is obviously due primarily to mergers: the AFL existed from 1960 to 1970, the ABA from 1968 to 1977, the WHA from 1973 to 1980. (MLB had its merger long before this period.) No league has dealt with serious competition since then, thus lessening the pressure to expand.
We can also look at a rough measure of talent pool by looking at # of teams vs. the United States population. Here is a table given in terms of teams per hundred million Americans:
Year Total MLB NFL NBA NHL
1961 25.04 9.80 7.62 4.36 3.27
1962 26.27 10.72 7.51 4.82 3.22
1963 25.89 10.57 7.40 4.76 3.17
1964 25.54 10.42 7.30 4.69 3.13
1965 25.22 10.29 7.21 4.63 3.09
1966 25.44 10.18 7.63 4.58 3.05
1967 29.19 10.06 8.05 5.03 6.04
1968 29.89 9.96 7.97 5.98 5.98
1969 32.56 11.84 7.89 6.91 5.92
1970 37.06 11.70 12.68 6.83 5.85
1971 39.01 11.56 12.52 8.19 6.74
1972 38.59 11.43 12.39 8.10 6.67
1973 39.17 11.33 12.27 8.02 7.55
1974 38.81 11.22 12.16 7.95 7.48
1975 39.82 11.11 12.04 8.33 8.33
1976 40.36 11.01 12.84 8.26 8.26
1977 42.68 11.81 12.71 9.99 8.17
1978 42.23 11.68 12.58 9.88 8.09
1979 41.32 11.55 12.44 9.78 7.55
1980 42.69 11.44 12.32 9.68 9.24
1981 42.71 11.33 12.20 10.02 9.15
1982 42.30 11.22 12.09 9.93 9.07
1983 41.92 11.12 11.98 9.84 8.98
1984 41.56 11.03 11.87 9.75 8.91
1985 41.19 10.93 11.77 9.67 8.83
1986 40.81 10.83 11.66 9.58 8.75
1987 40.45 10.73 11.56 9.49 8.67
1988 40.08 10.63 11.45 9.41 8.59
1989 40.52 10.53 11.34 10.13 8.51
1990 40.86 10.42 11.22 10.82 8.41
1991 40.32 10.28 11.07 10.67 8.30
1992 40.15 10.14 10.92 10.53 8.58
1993 41.17 10.77 10.77 10.39 9.23
1994 41.42 10.64 10.64 10.26 9.88
1995 41.69 10.52 11.27 10.14 9.76
1996 41.95 10.39 11.14 10.77 9.65
1997 41.45 10.27 11.00 10.64 9.54
1998 41.69 10.88 10.88 10.51 9.43
1999 41.93 10.75 11.11 10.39 9.68
2000 41.82 10.63 10.99 10.28 9.92
2001 42.11 10.53 10.88 10.18 10.53
2002 42.07 10.43 11.13 10.08 10.43
2003 41.71 10.34 11.03 10.00 10.34
2004 41.32 10.25 10.93 9.90 10.25
2005 41.28 10.15 10.83 10.15 10.15
2006 40.89 10.05 10.72 10.05 10.05
2007 40.50 9.96 10.62 9.96 9.96
2008 40.12 9.87 10.52 9.87 9.87
2009 39.77 9.78 10.43 9.78 9.78
2010 39.44 9.70 10.34 9.70 9.70
2011 39.14 9.62 10.27 9.62 9.62
2012 38.84 9.55 10.19 9.55 9.55
2013 38.55 9.48 10.11 9.48 9.48
2014 38.26 9.41 10.04 9.41 9.41
2015 37.98 9.34 9.96 9.34 9.34Every league is at its least diluted point since its merger except for the NHL, which is close. Add in the international growth of the NBA especially and it's definitely time for more expansion. The NBA and NHL reached post-merger lows in 1988 and 1991 respectively before engaging in significantly more expansion, accounting for 68% of the post-1980 expansion.
Another way to look at for the non-MLB leagues is the amount of expansion that occurred from competition vs. otherwise. The NHL famously has the Original Six, but the NBA had a similar nucleus of eight and the NFL twelve. That leaves total expansion as 24, 22, and 20; of which competitive expansion and mergers accounted for 7, 12, and 13 respectively; which finally leaves unforced expansion of 17, 10, and 7. I think this is an interesting measurement of the common sentiment that the NHL massively overexpanded while the other leagues grew more organically.
I suggest there should be more expansion, but expansion to where? Let's look at a table of states by the same teams per 100 million metric as above:
0.00 Alabama
0.00 South Carolina
0.00 Kentucky
0.00 Connecticut
0.00 Iowa
0.00 Arkansas
0.00 Mississippi
0.00 Kansas
0.00 Nevada
0.00 New Mexico
0.00 Nebraska
0.00 West Virginia
0.00 Idaho
0.00 Hawaii
0.00 Maine
0.00 New Hampshire
0.00 Rhode Island
0.00 Montana
0.00 Delaware
0.00 South Dakota
0.00 North Dakota
0.00 Alaska
0.00 Vermont
0.00 Wyoming
25.19 Oregon
25.79 Oklahoma
28.32 Washington
29.68 Texas
29.71 Georgia
30.17 North Carolina
30.32 Indiana
33.56 New Jersey
33.98 Utah
36.03 District of Columbia and Virginia
38.82 Illinois
40.36 Michigan
40.51 New York
41.23 California
43.01 Louisiana
45.24 Florida
45.81 Tennessee
50.20 Maryland
51.75 Ohio
52.11 Wisconsin
54.74 Pennsylvania
59.30 Massachusetts
59.42 Arizona
65.97 Missouri
73.30 Minnesota
74.68 ColoradoI look at this list and I see strong possibilities in the Pacific Northwest and the South. The most populous states with 0 teams are Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut, Iowa, Arkansas, and Mississippi; aside from Connecticut (NY/Boston) and Iowa (Minneapolis?) these are all untapped markets with common heritage, plus Georgia Texas and Oklahoma are in the five most underserved states. Of course there are other factors in addition to raw population size, such as relative wealth and relative urbanization, but still.
Another thoroughly untapped possibility is Canada: only two non-NHL teams exist in Canada, and both are in Toronto. Climate hasn't been an excuse for decades considering the proliferation of domes. The point that Canada only loves hockey (and the related point that the South only loves college football) is not as hefty as you might think. Nobody cared about hockey in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have been in the top 10 of attendance every year of the last four. Oklahoma City has the most raucous home atmosphere in the NBA. If you build it, they will come.
