Post by eric on Apr 5, 2016 15:49:41 GMT -6
at Bruns request
The software runs the lotto with chances out of 1000 for each odds position as...
250
200
157
120
89
64
44
29
18
10
8
6
5
The combinatorics get pretty intricate and unfortunately I can't find exact figures for the 13 team lotto (29 team league) anywhere, so I'll make do with empirically obtained results later. We have had 31 lotteries based on the previous year's standings. Here are the results by lotto odds, keeping in mind that for several years the odds weren't posted so I had to guess based on the standings.
-Drop refers to the total change in position, positive means the pick on average got lower (worse), negative means the pick on average got higher (better).
-Avg is where on average the pick ended up.
-Model is the predicted average.
So it appears the software is matching the documentation in our sample. Now let's look by franchise:
Lottos is how many lotteries a team has been in. Every franchise has been in at least seven (Brooklyn), no franchise has been in more than nineteen (Denver).
Max is the biggest drop, and the max that can be is three. Milwaukee and Portland have never dropped in a combined 27 lottos.
Min is the smallest drop (i.e. biggest jump). Grizzlies 3029 got the #1 pick with the #10 odds, the next closest jump is 7. Charlotte and Seattle have never jumped in a combined 36 lottos.
Drop is the total of drops across all the years, but as we've seen the expected drop changes based on starting odds, so
Pred is the predicted total of drops given each team's starting odds in each year.
If we subtract the actual from the prediction, we get the following luck for franchises:
The software runs the lotto with chances out of 1000 for each odds position as...
250
200
157
120
89
64
44
29
18
10
8
6
5
The combinatorics get pretty intricate and unfortunately I can't find exact figures for the 13 team lotto (29 team league) anywhere, so I'll make do with empirically obtained results later. We have had 31 lotteries based on the previous year's standings. Here are the results by lotto odds, keeping in mind that for several years the odds weren't posted so I had to guess based on the standings.
-Drop refers to the total change in position, positive means the pick on average got lower (worse), negative means the pick on average got higher (better).
-Avg is where on average the pick ended up.
-Model is the predicted average.
start drop avg model
1 56 2.81 2.62
2 29 2.94 3.01
3 26 3.84 3.40
4 -10 3.68 3.93
5 -23 4.26 4.64
6 -25 5.19 5.54
7 -29 6.06 6.51
8 -10 7.68 7.51
9 2 9.06 8.68
10 -16 9.48 9.81
11 0 11.00 10.80
12 0 12.00 11.77
13 0 13.00 12.79So it appears the software is matching the documentation in our sample. Now let's look by franchise:
Lottos is how many lotteries a team has been in. Every franchise has been in at least seven (Brooklyn), no franchise has been in more than nineteen (Denver).
Max is the biggest drop, and the max that can be is three. Milwaukee and Portland have never dropped in a combined 27 lottos.
Min is the smallest drop (i.e. biggest jump). Grizzlies 3029 got the #1 pick with the #10 odds, the next closest jump is 7. Charlotte and Seattle have never jumped in a combined 36 lottos.
Drop is the total of drops across all the years, but as we've seen the expected drop changes based on starting odds, so
Pred is the predicted total of drops given each team's starting odds in each year.
team lottos max min drop pred
ATL 17 3 -4 10 3.33
BOS 18 2 -2 3 -2.94
BRO 7 1 -7 -15 -2.24
CHA 18 3 0 12 0.00
CHI 16 3 -4 9 2.68
CLE 16 3 -7 -13 -2.97
DEN 19 2 -1 5 -1.85
GS 18 2 -4 -1 -3.84
HOU 11 3 -2 3 4.57
IND 12 2 -5 -8 -0.75
KC 9 1 -2 -2 -1.39
LAC 15 3 -5 7 6.19
LAL 12 3 -4 0 3.96
MEM 13 1 -4 -6 -3.14
MIA 14 1 -3 -6 2.68
MIL 16 0 -5 -8 -4.92
MIN 13 3 -2 9 3.96
NY 15 1 -2 0 -4.24
OKC 9 3 -2 2 -0.64
ORL 16 3 -3 5 -0.05
PHI 11 2 -2 7 10.84
PHX 8 2 -4 -6 -0.64
POR 11 0 -5 -12 -3.47
SA 17 2 -5 -4 -2.34
SEA 18 2 0 3 -2.35
TOR 14 3 -5 -7 -3.88
UTA 13 3 -2 4 0.88
VAN 14 2 -9 -1 -0.81
WAS 13 3 0 10 3.35If we subtract the actual from the prediction, we get the following luck for franchises:
luck team luck team
-6.67 ATL 12.76 BRO
-5.94 BOS 10.03 CLE
12.76 BRO 8.68 MIA
-12.00 CHA 8.53 POR
-6.32 CHI 7.25 IND
10.03 CLE 5.36 PHX
-6.85 DEN 3.96 LAL
-2.84 GS 3.84 PHI
1.57 HOU 3.12 TOR
7.25 IND 3.08 MIL
0.61 KC 2.86 MEM
-0.81 LAC 1.66 SA
3.96 LAL 1.57 HOU
2.86 MEM 0.61 KC
8.68 MIA 0.19 VAN
3.08 MIL -0.81 LAC
-5.04 MIN -2.64 OKC
-4.24 NY -2.84 GS
-2.64 OKC -3.12 UTA
-5.05 ORL -4.24 NY
3.84 PHI -5.04 MIN
5.36 PHX -5.05 ORL
8.53 POR -5.35 SEA
1.66 SA -5.94 BOS
-5.35 SEA -6.32 CHI
3.12 TOR -6.65 WAS
-3.12 UTA -6.67 ATL
0.19 VAN -6.85 DEN
-6.65 WAS -12.00 CHA
