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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 13:46:53 GMT -6
This logic still doesn't make sense to me since there were still 4 people with potential to be the last mafia member, and that's excluding timpig. In my eyes I knew jhb and canes were civ I knew I was civ I was trusting jhb/canes on delap/tim Leaves you and 20s. 20s was willing to go first on the chopping block. The more people I could put in front of me to get voted out(you, 20s) the better off we were. I understand your logic, but I don't see how delap was cleared of suspicion and left off the list. Just trusting that SPL wouldn't have included him in his list even though SPL was clearly going full wildcard by admitting he was mafia and then listing "accomplices." Trying to say that it wouldn't make sense to include your mafia team member as one of the accomplices is only logical if you think it makes sense to come out and admit you're mafia. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 13:49:46 GMT -6
Understood, but what about Delap? He is the fourth person that could be mafia. We only had three rounds before it was a coin flip, right? He could have been except for SPL stupidly listed pete, delap, and taco as his accomplices on Day 1, then backpedaled to Pete and delap when he was confronted that he only had two accomplices, then you guys (for some dumb reason) killed Taco on night 1 and revealed he was civ and we found out later Pete was cop.
Like I said, I was more sure Delap was a civ than I was because of that.
And I'm sure you would say that it's "dumb" to admit you're a mafia member; so if you think SPL is prone to do dumb things why couldn't he be "dumb" enough to include a mafia member on his list. |
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jun 14, 2017 13:51:35 GMT -6
THAts fine. BUt it meant we had no reason to put him on our lists to kill at the point of the game we are at Understood, but what about Delap? He is the fourth person that could be mafia. We only had three rounds before it was a coin flip, right? I wasn't around but I had you and delap about equal after I did the switch to 20s |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 13:52:12 GMT -6
Like we said, we had three days before we got to a coin flip so 20's suggested we set a list of 3 players to vote out and it would be set by the verified civs in Canes and I so everyone could trust it was free of mafia influence. Canes was afk so it was pretty much on me at that point. While I was most suspicious of Soup and 20s but it was mainly because of how active they were and not because I had a good reason, I was almost 100% delap was a civ and your actions were the most pro-mafia of the game so far with your voting record. I didn't have enough info about TimPig to make a call. So even though I didn't plan to have it be a final list, I originally threw out a list with 20s on it just to see how he reacted to his own name being put on the list. When I got worried I didn't commit enough by putting him third on the list, I changed it up to him and soup first to see how they reacted to plan out who I would do after you. After the way they reacted, I was pretty sure they were both civs and at worst I trusted one of them and delap to root out the third if they got that far. That's how we ended up with the final GBG, Tim list for the next two rounds that would have left soup, 20s, and delap on the last day. 20s Navidad you the real MVP |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 13:53:47 GMT -6
He could have been except for SPL stupidly listed pete, delap, and taco as his accomplices on Day 1, then backpedaled to Pete and delap when he was confronted that he only had two accomplices, then you guys (for some dumb reason) killed Taco on night 1 and revealed he was civ and we found out later Pete was cop.
Like I said, I was more sure Delap was a civ than I was because of that.
And I'm sure you would say that it's "dumb" to admit you're a mafia member; so if you think SPL is prone to do dumb things why couldn't he be "dumb" enough to include a mafia member on his list. I was just confident that SPL had made up his list of people instead of listing actual teammates since he made the initial mistake of listing the wrong number of accomplices. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 13:55:21 GMT -6
So, basically you got lucky. Got it.
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 14:00:26 GMT -6
Oh man this is some high quality sore losing.
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 14:00:44 GMT -6
Sherlock JHB will not be fooled.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:04:26 GMT -6
Oh man this is some high quality sore losing. It's not sore losing. I lost ... Canes and I were away from the game; so I couldn't make the same cases I'm making now in the thread during the game. We'll never know what could have been had I not been busy after work. Maybe it would have played out the same, or maybe it wouldn't have. No one knows, and if they say they do, they are lying. |
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Post by eric on Jun 14, 2017 14:05:36 GMT -6
So, basically you got lucky. Got it. it was lucky the town got you on the first day of the system, but the odds were always in the town's favor to win from the point they were at. see for yourself if a player picks three names at random on the first day, assuming they pick three different names: one in five chance of getting the mafia, four names left one in four chance of getting the mafia, three names left one in three chance of getting the mafia if the town picks randomly: day 4: seven players left, of whom two are known civs, thus one in five chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 80% of the time day 5: five players left, of whom one is a known civ, thus one in four chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 75% of the time day 6: three players left, of whom none are known civs, thus one in three chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 67% of the time 80% * 75% * 67% = 40% thus, 60-40 in the town's favor either way |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:05:49 GMT -6
And I'm sure you would say that it's "dumb" to admit you're a mafia member; so if you think SPL is prone to do dumb things why couldn't he be "dumb" enough to include a mafia member on his list. I was just confident that SPL had made up his list of people instead of listing actual teammates since he made the initial mistake of listing the wrong number of accomplices. You assume that it was a mistake, or maybe it was a calculated mistake to make it seem like since he didn't know how many people were in the mafia he was not actually mafia. |
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Post by TimPig on Jun 14, 2017 14:07:31 GMT -6
I was 100% on Timpig being a civ Pretty much everyone was, but he wasn't cleared by the cop; so there was still the .1 percent chance that he was mafia. Is this due to the argument 20s posed that I voted for BK in round one to tie it when I could've voted for Heebs instead? |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:08:46 GMT -6
So, basically you got lucky. Got it. it was lucky the town got you on the first day of the system, but the odds were always in the town's favor to win from the point they were at. see for yourself if a player picks three names at random on the first day, assuming they pick three different names: one in five chance of getting the mafia, four names left one in four chance of getting the mafia, three names left one in three chance of getting the mafia if the town picks randomly: day 4: seven players left, of whom two are known civs, thus one in five chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 80% of the time day 5: five players left, of whom one is a known civ, thus one in four chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 75% of the time day 6: three players left, of whom none are known civs, thus one in three chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 67% of the time 80% * 75% * 67% = 40% thus, 60-40 in the town's favor either way If I told you I was going to rng a 60-40 outcome for your life, would you not feel lucky that the 60% chance won? |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:10:36 GMT -6
Pretty much everyone was, but he wasn't cleared by the cop; so there was still the .1 percent chance that he was mafia. Is this due to the argument 20s posed that I voted for BK in round one to tie it when I could've voted for Heebs instead? That was part of it. |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 14:10:40 GMT -6
I was just confident that SPL had made up his list of people instead of listing actual teammates since he made the initial mistake of listing the wrong number of accomplices. You assume that it was a mistake, or maybe it was a calculated mistake to make it seem like since he didn't know how many people were in the mafia he was not actually mafia. And had you guys not voted one of the "accomplices" out and had the other be revealed as the cop in the 2nd round, it might have made this situation more plausible. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 14:11:42 GMT -6
it was lucky the town got you on the first day of the system, but the odds were always in the town's favor to win from the point they were at. see for yourself if a player picks three names at random on the first day, assuming they pick three different names: one in five chance of getting the mafia, four names left one in four chance of getting the mafia, three names left one in three chance of getting the mafia if the town picks randomly: day 4: seven players left, of whom two are known civs, thus one in five chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 80% of the time day 5: five players left, of whom one is a known civ, thus one in four chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 75% of the time day 6: three players left, of whom none are known civs, thus one in three chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 67% of the time 80% * 75% * 67% = 40% thus, 60-40 in the town's favor either way If I told you I was going to rng a 60-40 outcome for your life, would you not feel lucky that the 60% chance won? Lol this game is life/death now? |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:13:38 GMT -6
You assume that it was a mistake, or maybe it was a calculated mistake to make it seem like since he didn't know how many people were in the mafia he was not actually mafia. And had you guys not voted one of the "accomplices" out and had the other be revealed as the cop in the 2nd round, it might have made this situation more plausible. Well, we didn't vote taco out, Billy did. My original vote was to take out Delap, but a lot happened overnight to change that and I wasn't caught up on everything fast enough in the morning to actually have a discussion on the matter. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:14:18 GMT -6
If I told you I was going to rng a 60-40 outcome for your life, would you not feel lucky that the 60% chance won? Lol this game is life/death now? No, I'm just asking a question. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:20:08 GMT -6
Another thing that could have changed the game... If Pete had not called Heebs out for being a fake cop, Night 2 would have ended with your bodyguard dead. Then Heebs would have been dead after that, but without a body guard who knows if Pete could come out and sacrifice himself without knowing a for sure mafia member? He would have probably been high on the hit list for night 3, too; so even though Heebs made a really silly play, getting Pete to come out and get protected by eric was actually very beneficial to the town.
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 14:23:41 GMT -6
How do we know eric would have been targeted? So not sure if our bodyguard would have died.
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 14:24:30 GMT -6
Or how do we know eric would have protected heebs or the mafia put a hit on heebs.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:27:35 GMT -6
How do we know eric would have been targeted? So not sure if our bodyguard would have died. I know because I was mafia and I would have killed eric. The only reason he wasn't targeted night 1 was because he repeatedly asked for body guard protection and might have gotten it; so it wasn't worth the risk to target him and potentially be down to 1 mafia member on day 2. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 14:29:00 GMT -6
How do we know eric would have been targeted? So not sure if our bodyguard would have died. I know because I was mafia and I would have killed eric. The only reason he wasn't targeted night 1 was because he repeatedly asked for body guard protection and might have gotten it; so it wasn't worth the risk to target him and potentially be down to 1 mafia member on day 2. I mean in the same way you said to jhb, we will never know if that's what happened. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:29:12 GMT -6
Or how do we know eric would have protected heebs or the mafia put a hit on heebs. We were already down to 2 people; so we needed to be smart about our hit attempts. The only reason we went after Pete is because we figured Billy was a lost cause anyways and what are the odds of 2 people faking as the cop without outside coordination? |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:32:31 GMT -6
I know because I was mafia and I would have killed eric. The only reason he wasn't targeted night 1 was because he repeatedly asked for body guard protection and might have gotten it; so it wasn't worth the risk to target him and potentially be down to 1 mafia member on day 2. I mean in the same way you said to jhb, we will never know if that's what happened. Well, I'm telling you; so take it for what it's worth. After SPL died, he didn't contribute in the mafia chat. BK wanted to go after eric originally, but with the body guard requests he went for someone who had no chance of being protected by the body guard on night one. So, I'm positive that BK would have agreed to hit eric night two had we not had a cop to target. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 14:35:49 GMT -6
Yeah, we'll never know.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:38:50 GMT -6
Lol, oh Soup. I'm already making a conditional statement, you have to add a condition that wasn't present in my conditional statement to refute it. |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 14:40:03 GMT -6
He's doing the same thing you just did above though.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:40:41 GMT -6
I added some conditions, me being on the board and canes being on the board as potential reasons to change the outcome. Those things didn't happen; so we will never know what would have happened had the conditions been present.
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 14:40:54 GMT -6
Another thing that changed the game...Ankly decided to bring mafia to the board. If he hadn't, we wouldn't have played these three games and no one would be a winner or loser.
Makes you think.
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